The Kings had the most efficient offense in NBA history last season
The Sacramento Kings had the most efficient offense in NBA history last season when they averaged 118.6 points per 100 possessions. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are All-Stars, but I think most readers would agree that they are far from the most talented offensive duo the league has ever seen. So how did Sacramento not only lap the 2023 field, but the entirety of league history last season?
Well, some factors were somewhat inevitable. Offense has grown significantly more efficient league wide over the past several seasons. Sacramento broke a record that had previously been set by the 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets at 117.3 points per 100 possessions, who themselves broke a record that had been set by the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks at 115.9 points per 100 possessions. Someone was going to break Brooklyn’s record, but why the Kings, specifically? The Kings stood out in five areas:
- The Kings ranked sixth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (37.3).
- The Kings ranked seventh in the NBA in fast-break points per game (14.9).
- The Kings ranked seventh in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (25.1).
- The Kings ranked fourth in the NBA in passes per game (299.3) and third in potential assists (49.7).
- The Kings were by far the healthiest team in the NBA last season. All five of their starters missed fewer than 10 games. They used the same starting lineup of Fox, Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes in 61 of their 82 games and that lineup played 900 total minutes. Only two other lineups even reached 600 last season.
So what is the message here? Notice that these numbers emphasize process over results. The Kings were a pretty good shooting team from both the line and from deep… but they were great at just getting those shots in the first place. They forced the issue in transition when they could for easy baskets and they moved the ball to create better looks. The Kings may not have been the best team in the league in any of those areas, but they were among the best in all of them and they almost always had all of their best players at their disposal. That, more than anything, led to their offensive success.
And it’s the biggest measure we’ll use to rank this season’s 30 offenses before opening night. These rankings are not solely based on sheer talent. They will account for depth, durability, shot profiles and coaching track records. We are attempting to predict where all 30 teams will ultimately rank when the dust settles in April, not how they look on paper today. With that in mind, let’s begin:
Denver Nuggets
What they’ll do well: They have the best offensive player in the world (Nikola Jokic). That player has never played fewer than 69 games in a season (and only fell below 70 last year because of how quickly Denver clinched home-court advantage). They’re bringing back all five starters, giving them a significant continuity advantage on almost every other elite offense. They were the only team in the NBA last season to finish in the top-five in 3-point percentage (fourth), points in the paint (fourth) and fast-break points (fifth). Rookie Julian Strawther is shooting a blistering 45.2% on nearly eight 3-point attempts per game in the preseason, giving this bench the sharpshooter it has largely lacked.
Where they’ll struggle: Depth was an issue even with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green on the roster. Both are gone now. Brown was the de-facto backup point guard last season, and if Denver had much faith in Reggie Jackson to replace him, they likely would’ve given him real playoff minutes. The offense has declined by an average of 16.7 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench over the past three seasons, and they haven’t solved the backup center problem. Jamal Murray is in just his second season back from a torn ACL, while Michael Porter Jr. remains a significant injury risk.
Milwaukee Bucks
What they’ll do well: The Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll is going to be unguardable. Build a wall for Antetokounmpo and Lillard will take a dozen pull-up 3’s every night. Blitz Lillard and Antetokounmpo has a numbers advantage for the first time in his career. The decision to start Malik Beasley indicates that this team is prioritizing points above all else. The shooting depth is incredible as almost every member of the rotation is at least decent from deep. Most are a good deal better. Brook Lopez can still get you some post-up points, and Khris Middleton is overqualified as a third option.
Where they’ll struggle: Everyone is old. Lillard is 33. Lopez is 35. Middleton is 32 and played only 33 games last season (and not especially well by his standards). Mike Budenholzer was one of the best regular-season offensive coaches in basketball. How much of his system will Adrian Griffin replicate? Is Cameron Payne a viable backup point guard when he isn’t sharing minutes with Devin Booker or Chris Paul? Phoenix lineups featuring Payne and neither of his more famous backcourt-mates ranked in just the 20th percentile in offense last season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
